Our Andy Schooler says Manchester City and Celtic have been priced up too big on Wednesday's Champions League coupon.
Recommended bets:
2pts Man City-Draw in double-chance market
2pts Celtic to beat Borussia Monchengladbach
Let's get straight to the point - Manchester City are too big at 6/1 to win in the Nou Camp.
Wednesday's marquee game in the Champions League takes place in Barcelona where the visitors simply have to be the bet in some shape or form.
It should be remembered that City made the semi-finals of this competition last season (by the way, Barca went out in the last eight) and are not the also-rans the price would have you believe.
They've strengthened significantly since, have lost only once since hiring arguably the world's best coach and currently sit atop the Premier League, one of Europe's most competitive.
In Pep Guardiola, they also have a man who knows plenty of the Barca players well, not to mention their current boss Luis Enrique. Such knowledge is not insignificant.
I'm not arguing they should be favourites, but they are no 6/1 shot.
Barca are hardly in tip-top form. They currently sit only fourth in the Primera Division having already lost 4-3 at Celta Vigo and 2-1 at home to Alaves.
Perhaps of greater interest is that when they have come up against top opposition, they also failed to win - drawing 1-1 at the Nou Camp against Atletico Madrid.
City look capable of following in such footsteps with the double-chance market looking of most interest; you can get almost 2/1 about City avoiding defeat.
Yes, Barca do still have that fearsome attack and Lionel Messi is available again after a groin injury.
Yet Enrique's claim that Messi is back in top form must be open to doubt given he's not played 90 minutes in more than a month. It must also be encouraging for City that Barca were trying out a new 3-4-3 system at the weekend. Is this really the game in which to be going for something unfamiliar?
Let's also not forget City have one of the world's best strikers in Sergio Aguero, rested for much of their weekend draw with Everton, a game they dominated and really should have won.
At the back it will be interesting to see how John Stones deals with Barca's frontline. This is the sort of game which the young defender left Everton to play in and, if he's at his best, this could be a game which really makes him. He'll be a potentially massive price in any man-of-the-match markets, which are sure to be dominated by Messi, Suarez and co.
Away from north-eastern Spain, Celtic are another side who look overpriced.
Three weeks on from their 3-3 draw with Man City, Brendan Rodgers' men are back at Parkhead to entertain poor travellers Borussia Monchengladbach.
Anyone who read my preview of their matchday one clash will already know the travails the Germans have suffered on the road. For those who didn't, here are the figures.
They managed to qualify for the Champions League despite losing 10 of their 17 away games in the Bundesliga last term, conceding 32 goals in the process.
Little has changed so far this term - it's one point from a possible nine so far, two scored and eight conceded. They've also already lost 4-0 at City in this competition.
Throw in a host of injury problems and Gladbach are crying out to be opposed.
"The amount of unavailable players is tough to deal with but the squad is big enough - now other players have to step in," said sporting director Max Eberl after it was revealed that Fabian Johnson (illness), Andreas Christensen (gluteal), Raffael (thigh) and Thorgan Hazard (knee) had joined an already-lengthy injury list.
I was surprised by how well Celtic got about City and if they perform to that level again, they'll make quotes of 2/1 look silly.
They are unbeaten in six games since their 7-0 spanking in Barcelona with both Moussa Dembele and Scott Sinclair having continued their good goalscoring runs.
Dembele now has nine in his last eight games, while Sinclair has eight for the season thus far. Both will surely have their backers against a depleted defence which was already particularly leaky.
Arsenal are the other British team in action but they are red-hot favourites to beat Bulgarians Ludogorets at the Emirates. Even Theo Walcott is just 6/5 to score at any time, showing the bookies are well and truly clued up to not only Arsenal's chances here but also the hit-and-miss forward's hot streak in front of goal.
On the rest of the coupon, Benfica catch the eye at 2/1 away to Dynamo Kiev.
I'd expected a bit more from them so far - they've taken one point from their first two games - but they've had injury problems which are easing. Despite those issues, they sit top of the Portuguese league having dropped just two points in their first seven games.
Now they come up against a Kiev side who have won just twice in their last eight.
Benfica may be worth a small interest but for the staking plan I'll stick with the overpriced pair of City and Celtic in my bid for profit.
Posted at 1630 BST on 18/10/16.