Carrasco a cracking bet

Goals are on the agenda when Man City host Barcelona but backing Atletico's Yannick Carrasco to score looks Tuesday's best bet.

Carrasco (r) has stepped out of the shadows of Torres (l) and Griezmann of late
Carrasco (r) has stepped out of the shadows of Torres (l) and Griezmann of late

Recommended bets:

2pts Yannick Ferreira Carrasco to score antime in Atletico Madrid v Rostov

0.5pt Yannick Ferreira Carrasco to score two or more goals in Atletico Madrid v Rostov

0.5pt Manchester City to draw 2-2 v Barcelona

Having liked the chances of Manchester City getting some kind of result at Barcelona two weeks ago, a 4-0 scoreline for the home side was something of an unwelcome sight.

However, before you stop reading/lambast me, there were mitigating circumstances.

City were very much in the game at only 1-0 down and should have been level (John Stones having missed a free header) when keeper Claudio Bravo was sent off.

The floodgates duly opened.

I'm therefore not about to switch horses for the return game at the Etihad, although whether the City price is now as tempting is certainly open to question. They were 6/1 to win in the Nou Camp but now are just 19/10.

Still, a case for the hosts can certainly still be made.

After six games without a victory, they returned to winning ways at West Brom on Saturday in convincing fashion and now come up against a side shorn of two of the defence which started in the Nou Camp, namely Gerard Pique and Jordi Alba, due to injury, while Jeremy Mathieu is suspended. Further forward, Andres Iniesta is also injured.

That's a situation which the likes of Sergio Aguero (surely he'll start this time) and Kevin de Bruyne should relish.

It is also worth pointing out that Barca's away record in this competition is probably not what you'd expect it to be - last season they drew at both Roma and Bayer Leverkusen in the group stage before losing at Atletico Madrid in the quarter-finals.

The problem for City is they still have to deal with the famous MSN frontline of Messi, Suarez and Neymar and they will have to do so without a recognised right-back with both Bacary Sagna and Pablo Zabaleta injured, not to mention suspended keeper Bravo.

I'm not thoroughly convinced by either side's victory claims here but what I do think, especially with those defensive problems, that there will be goals.

Sadly the layers are very much clued up on that front with both teams to score around the 4/9 mark and over 3.5 goals at 11/8.

If you are having a bet on either side to win the game I'd suggest pumping the odds up by backing them to win with both teams scoring - going down this route you can get City at 18/5 and Barca at 14/5.

However, personally I'd rather back the draw and the 2-2 version of that result is on offer at 11/1 which may be worth some small change.

Sky Bet's Manchester City v Barcelona odds!

Celtic, who are in the same group, also let us down last time out, or rather Kolo Toure did.

His two errors saw the Scots beaten 2-0 at home by Borussia Monchengladbach and it's hard to see then reversing the result in Germany where the hosts have been far stronger than on their travels.

Gladbach can really turn the pressure on City if they win - they could end the night two points clear of the Premier League side with a home game against them still to come.

Lars Strindl caught the eye in the game at Parkhead and he could be of some interest at 7/4 in the anytime scorer market, especially if Brendan Rodgers' side decide to defend in the way they did two weeks ago.

Arsenal are the other British side in action and there are a lot of short prices about regarding the Gunners following their 6-0 drubbing of the Bulgarians a fortnight back.

Ludogorets were outclassed at the Emirates and Arsenal really should pick up the win they need to book their place in the knockout stages.

However, to get a decent price you're going to need to go specific with a big away win the obvious option.

I'd be wary of getting involved there though. With a North London derby with Spurs looming at the weekend, Arsene Wenger has already hinted that this game could see team changes.

Aaron Ramsey returned as a sub at the weekend, while Granit Xhaka is available again after suspension.

Speaking about the possibility of Ramsey playing on Tuesday, Wenger said: "I will have to analyse all that now, with Xhaka back. We play now in the Champions League and then we play Tottenham.

"So I have to see who I rest and who I play without diminishing the chance of the team to win the game."

Those comments are enough for me to leave that one well alone and I'm instead much more interested in the Atletico Madrid v Rostov clash.

Last season's beaten finalists are, like Arsenal, short-priced favourites who know a victory will take them into the last 16, but there does appear to be a decent way of getting them on side.

It's not in the win-to-nil market. Seven of their nine wins have come this way although, interestingly, they have kept just one clean sheet in their last four games.

Such a stat actually made me look at the both team to score 'no' option. It's 21/10 but Rostov have failed to find the net in any of their last four matches.

My angle is instead to back Yannick Ferreira Carrasco, the Belgian winger who looks a big price in the scorer markets given his form.

He's often forced to live in the shadows of the better-known Antoine Griezmann and Fernando Torres but his goal stats of late have been superb.

His last four starts have brought six goals and while some will point out the majority of those came against sides in the bottom half of the Spanish league, it's also worth noting he's already scored against Bayern Munich and these opponents in this competition.

I also don't think Rostov can be considered of considerably greater quality than some of Atletico's domestic rivals and it's easy to see them scoring a few more here; for the record they put seven past Granada, four past Malaga and five past Sporting Gijon in recent games at the Vicente Calderon.

Carrasco is around 6/4 to add to his tally which looks a bet, while I'm going to also have a small dabble on him netting a brace at a tasty 17/2.

Posted at 1710 GMT on 31/10/16.

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