Our Andy Schooler expects Wales to grind out a win in World Cup qualifying on Sunday but says the best bet involves Israel.
Recommended bets:
1pt Wales to beat Georgia 1-0
1pt Wales to beat Georgia 2-0
4.5pts Israel to score before 27:00 mins v Liechtenstein
Wales look set to be without two of their most creative forces when they host Georgia in Sunday's World Cup qualifier and can be expected to have to work hard for the three points.
The Euro 2016 semi-finalists understandably start overwhelming favourites for the Cardiff City Stadium clash against a side which recently sunk to a new low in the FIFA rankings; they are currently considered the 137th best team in world football.
But the absence of Aaron Ramsey and (almost certainly) Joe Allen leaves the hosts lacking in star quality, barring Gareth Bale.
We all know Bale can win games virtually on his own but it looks like Wales' strength for this one will be very much in defence.
Ashley Williams and co have already kept out Moldova on home soil in the current qualifying campaign, while their Euro 2016 group saw them shut out Andorra, Israel, Belgium and Bosnia in their home matches, conceding only to Cyprus.
In fact that's the only goal they've conceded in their last seven competitive games in Wales and you can rest assured that the 5/6 on offer about them winning this game to nil will attract some support.
However, I think that backing a low-scoring Welsh win at considerably better odds looks the way to go.
Despite their slide down the rankings, the Georgians have not been an easy nut to crack so far in the pool - one of the most competitive of all the European groups.
They only lost 1-0 in Ireland on Thursday, that coming on the back of a 2-1 defeat to Austria.
Wales, meanwhile, were drawing 2-2 in Austria on Thursday - a decent result in the grand scheme of things, but it wasn't a performance which particularly convinced, boss Chris Coleman complaining afterwards that they gave the ball away too easily. "We made a lot of mistakes and looked indecisive," he concluded.
He'll try to find an immediate response but that will be difficult without two of his best players and it would be no surprise to see Wales struggle to shake off the effects of a below-par display.
Dutching the 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines is therefore the way I'm approaching this one. Wales' strong defence should ensure they can grind out a result, just like Ireland did the other day.
Coleman will frankly be happy with that given the close nature of this group - it would give his side seven points from a possible nine - and backing both scores is essentially a 7/4 shot.
The Irish head to Moldova on the same night but given how they huffed and puffed with little reward against Georgia, I'm not rushing to get involved with them around the 4/7 mark.
I prefer instead to head to the Israel v Liechtenstein game for what appears to be the best bet of the day.
5/6 is a price which won't appeal to everyone but it's simply too big in the time of the first Israel goal market where before 27 minutes has to be backed.
Leichtenstein really are one of the whipping boys of world __football - this isn't a side which is a competent defensive unit capable of keeping scorelines down, a la Georgia.
This is one which has lost 8-0 to Spain, 5-0 to Denmark, 4-0 to Iceland and 7-0 to Russia in the last 12 months or so and one which looks likely to be well beaten here too.
Delve a little deeper and you see that they are regularly going behind in the early stages too.
In Liechtenstein's last eight games, their opponents' first goal times have been as follows: 11, 10, 30, 10, 6, 12, 18, 21.
All bar one (the Danes) have been well below the line bet365 have given in this game.
OK, Israel are not powerhouses of world __football but they are a decent outfit. When they last played a team ranked this far down the rankings, they crushed Andorra 4-0, scoring their first goal in the third minute.
On Thursday they won 2-1 in Macedonia, scoring in the 25th minute.
They have goals in them with Brighton's Tomer Hamed likely to prove a real handful for the visitors' defence.
Israel's first goal time line is just set far too late here and as a consequence, it's a 5/6 shot which should be 1/2 or lower in my opinion.
It therefore has to be backed.
Posted at 1600 BST on 07/10/16.