David John and Matt Brocklebank preview Sunday's Premier League action with Tottenham's Dele Alli a definite eyecatcher.
Recommended bets:
2pts both teams to score in Man United v Stoke
1pt over 3.5 goals in Leicester v Southampton
2pts Burnley/Draw in double chance v Arsenal
2pt Dele Alli to score any time for Tottenham v Man City
1pts Man City/Draw in half-time/full-time against Tottenham
Manchester United v Stoke (1200 BST)
Jose Mourinho's United continue to swing radically from one end of the spectrum to the other in terms of performance as they strive to find a firm footing under the new manager. They repeatedly punched champions Leicester in the face last week in the Premier League in a rousing first-half display but then swung the other way in a ponderous 1-0 defeat of Zorya in the Europa League. Mourinho's decision to rest Daley Blind and the increasingly influential Ander Herrera on Thursday highlights his issues when delving just below his leading squad members when he chooses to switch things around. If history is anything to go by in terms of this fixture at Old Trafford, though, then the Portuguese could probably select the first 11 fans through the turnstiles. Stoke's miserable record now reads eight successive defeats on this ground in the Premier League and a fairly abysmal start to the season means the hosts are a prohibitive odds-on shot to heap more misery on Mark Hughes and the Potters. The latter are a top-10 outfit without doubt on paper but it just hasn't happened for them so far where it matters when they cross the whitewash with some sloppy efforts you would not associate with a team marshalled by Hughes. They almost got over the line last week until conceding right at the death at home to West Brom but there were clear signs that the tide was starting to turn a little. That certainly includes the return of Xherdan Shaqiri and the fact he got through 90 minutes and declared himself fully fit is a huge boost - it was no surprise to see him play a big part in Joe Allen's opening goal. "I will get better and so will the team. We will be okay," said the Swiss star this week and it would be typical of the current British top flight to see them come here against all the odds and land a 10/1 skinner for the layers. I would probably want to see a bit more from them in all honesty despite those green shoots against the Baggies but I do think there is enough optimism to see them make an impact. Shaqiri, Marko Arnautovic, Wilfred Bony and hopefully Allen (slight hamstring issue) are a handful so I would back both teams to score at a fraction of odds-against.
Verdict: Manchester United 2-1 Stoke (DJ)
Opta facts:
- Manchester United have won all eight previous Premier League matches against Stoke at Old Trafford; against no other side have they played more games with a 100% record (also Wigan, 8)
- After winning none of their first 11 Premier League clashes with the Red Devils, Stoke have since won two of their last five (D1 L2).
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 16 home games in all competitions against the Potters (W15 D1), winning the last 13 in a row.
- Wayne Rooney has scored four and assisted two more in his last three PL appearances against Stoke at Old Trafford.
- Stoke's last clean sheet at Old Trafford coincided with their last win there in any competition - they won 1-0 in April 1976 in the league.
Leicester v Southampton (1415 BST)
Claudio Ranieri sat the champions down this week for a little heart-to-heart about their inconsistent form in the Premier League but they have been able to rely on home performances so far with just two points dropped at the King Power Stadium. Seven points from six games and 12th place is a reasonable return all things considered bearing in mind an increased scrutiny on the Foxes plus the distraction of the Champions League (no current problems there!) but Ranieri is keen to ensure standards do not drop significantly and they retain contact with the leading pack. They were flattened at Old Trafford in the first half but much better after the break as they actually "won" the second half while a victory over Porto in Europe in midweek should have put the spring back in their step ahead of what should be a lively encounter with the Saints. Claude Puel's side seem to be getting the hang of how he wants them to play with Charlie Austin finding his scoring touch and the classy Dusan Tadic running the show from midfield with great panache. They won four in a rown in all competitions before Thursday's solid Europa League draw at Hapoel Be'er Sheva, although they were given an almighty helping hand to keep that run going by another shambolic West Ham effort last week at the London Stadium. That said, some of the speed of thought and fleet of foot would have troubled plenty of defences and you would have to be optimistic about their chances here as long as the off-field distractions surrounding assistant manager Eric Black don't creep onto the field of play. The home team's £27m striker Islam Slimani has settled in very nicely at his new club and the craft of Tadic should create some opportunities for the visitors so I am keen to have a small interest on over 3.5 goals in what could well be very entertaining fare indeed.
Verdict: Leicester 2-2 Southampton (DJ)
Opta facts:
- Leicester have lost only one of their 10 home Premier League games against the Saints, winning seven (D2).
- The Saints have only kept one clean sheet in their last 15 top-flight trips to Leicester, doing so in a 4-0 win in December 2001.
- The Foxes' haul of seven home Premier League wins against Southampton is their most against an opponent in the competition.
- Southampton have only won one of their seven league trips to the King Power Stadium, claiming a 2-1 victory in December 2007 - they have lost two and drawn one of three Premier League visits.
- Leicester have lost three of their six Premier League games this season (W2 D1), as many as they lost in their previous 42 in the competition (W26 D13).
Tottenham v Manchester City (1415 BST)
Spurs did the double over Man City last season and while the teams aren't going to be wildly different this time around, we've already seen how the introduction of Pep Guardiola has transformed the Citizens. After 10 straight wins under the new manager, it may have been a surprise to see the run come to an end on Wednesday night at Celtic Park but we didn't really learn anything new about them, in that it's a team packed with goalscoring talent which is always vulnerable to conceding a few themselves. "I am pretty sure the players didn't think they were going to win every game this season. It is impossible," remarked Pep after the 3-3 draw, which seemed a perfectly reasonable and level-headed summary after what turned out to be a hugely exciting and entertaining night of football. Nolito is suspended for this one and with Kevin De Bruyne still missing through injury City will have to delve a little deeper into their squad, but Jesus Navas has plenty of experience of such big games in this division and it's he and Raheem Sterling who could really stretch Spurs if finding their stride in the early exchanges. Sergio Aguero needs no introduction and has scored nine times against Tottenham across the last four seasons so with Spurs' main man Harry Kane on the sidelines you could argue the Argentinian could be even shorter than the 4/1 available about him netting first. Vincent Janssen, Kane's deputy for now, is desperately in need of shaking off the 'Roberto Soldado' tag as he seeks his first league goal for the hosts. He looked relieved to open his account against Gillingham in the EFL Cup and in the eyes of many fans has already proved his worth with his overall contribution and link-up, something the aforementioned Soldado never quite achieved. Either way it's Son Heung-Min who has been Mauricio Pochettino's star so far this season and everything he touches seems to end up in the back of the net. I can't help but think the layers now have him on their side in the goalscorer betting and as a result there are some attractive prices elsewhere. Christian Eriksen and Erik Lamela are both looking close to top form and the latter was impressive in taking the game by the scruff of the neck against CSKA Moscow in midweek, but it's Dele Alli who rates the standout bet after his eye-catching performance against Middlesbrough last weekend. Alli, on the scoresheet against Stoke last month, got 10 top-flight goals in the last campaign, including the opener against Man United at White Hart Lane in April. He is going to be pivotal in Spurs' fight for all three points without England team-mate Kane to call upon, but the draw appeals most as the outsider of three in the match market. In an attempt to boost the odds further, the recommendation is to back Spurs to secure a point from a trailing position at half-time. It's not something they've had to do much this season but they've picked up 1-1 draws against Everton and Liverpool having been down at the break and both wins over City last year came from half-time draws, so there's clearly a good attitude and even a better level of fitness to Pochettino's men.
Verdict: Tottenham 1-1 Manchester City (MB)
Opta facts:
- Spurs have won 22 of their 38 Premier League games against City; should they win this game, they will have beaten them more often than they've defeated any other side (currently tied with 22 wins v Everton).
- Manchester City have lost both of their last two Premier League meetings with Tottenham, the same number they lost in their previous 11 top-flight clashes with the Lilywhites (W8 D1).
- There have been 22 goals scored in the last five Premier League meetings between these sides at White Hart Lane (9 for Spurs, 13 for Man City).
- Sergio Aguero has scored 28 goals in his last 27 Premier League appearances for Man City.
- Pep Guardiola needs a win from this game to break the record for best winning starts to a managerial career in the Premier League (currently tied with Carlo Ancelotti on six).
Burnley v Arsenal (1630 BST)
Burnley have traditionally made life tough for this weekend's opponents at Turf Moor over the years and seem unlikely to start rolling over for Arsene Wenger's in-form side now. Wenger claimed that his team are firing on "full power" following the comfortable Champions League win in midweek and quite rightly singled out Theo Walcott for praise in light of his excellent start to the season. The much-maligned England man seems to be playing fearless __football again and he's arguably been the brightest spark in Arsenal's high-quality interplay between himself, Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil. Alex Iwobi continues to grow in stature on the opposite flank and it's becoming increasingly hard to see how even a fully-fit Olivier Giroud comes back into Wenger's 'Plan A'. Defensively, the Gunners also look pretty solid, keeping clean sheets in their last three games and not conceding more than a single goal in any match since their opening-day disaster at home to Liverpool. A fourth clean sheet on the spin can be backed at even money if you shop around, but I'm inclined to feel there's a reasonable chance of an upset here. History tells us that Wenger's outfit are at their most vulnerable when things appear to be going swimmingly and it doesn't take the greatest imagination in the world to picture a scenario in which Burnley, fired up by a full house in the final match of the weekend, set about their visitors with some strong tackles and no-nonsense treatment. You only have to look at Monday night's victory over Watford to see how Sean Dyche is going to play things and for all the experience and flair in the away ranks, this could become more attritional than they'd ideally care for on the back of a European fixture in midweek. If that's the case then the Clarets are no 8/1 shots to gain back-to-back wins. Sam Vokes, in for the suspended Andre Gray, is the ideal battering ram to give Laurent Koscielny a hard time and in Steven Defour the hosts appear to have a gem of a player who could become a household name this season. The midfielder opened his Burnley account in the 1-1 draw with Hull but his delivery from wide areas and set-pieces is his real asset. He put it on a plate for Monday's goalscorers, Jeff Hendrick and Michael Keane, and the latter could be a player again at huge prices in the goalscorer markets (40/1 first, 16/1 any time). However, I'm going to rein it in slightly and take a chance on the buoyant hosts, with the double chance concession offering odds in excess of 2/1 generally.
Verdict: Burnley 1-1 Arsenal (MB)
Opta facts:
- Burnley are winless in seven league games against the Gunners (D3 L4), losing each of the last three in the Premier League.
- The Clarets have netted just two goals in total in their last six league clashes with Arsenal, failing to score in four of those games.
- The last three league meetings between the two sides at Turf Moor have produced a total of just three goals (0-0, 1-1 and most recently, 0-1).
- Alexis Sanchez has been involved in four goals in three appearances against the Clarets in all competitions, scoring three and assisting one.
Posted at 1650 BST on 30/09/16