Matt Brocklebank picks out the best bets on Saturday's Premier League coupon, with Chelsea and Liverpool backed for victory.
Recommended bets:
2pts Liverpool/Liverpool in half-time/full-time
2pts Chelsea (-1) to beat Hull on handicap
1pt West Brom to beat Sunderland
1pt Watford to beat Bournemouth
Swansea v Liverpool (1230 BST)
Liverpool have been quick off the blocks in all six games since a sloppy first 45 minutes left then with a mountain to climb at Burnley on the second weekend of the season and it's worth backing Jurgen Klopp's side to dominate Swansea from the outset. The enthusiastic German may have given away a few trade secrets in his engaging interview on Monday Night Football but there's nothing classified about Liverpool's wins this season. They press extremely high up the pitch, are prepared to run further than most teams and have loads of speed and quality to make it count when they do gain possession in the final third. They have also completed more passes than any other Premier League side (3,625 compared to Man City's 3,511) and had more shots (117, three clear of Spurs). That makes for a pretty potent combination and while the question marks remain over their defensive unit with James Milner still filling in at left-back and Simon Mignolet far from convincing in goal, there has been some improvement in that respect too lately. Twenty-five-year-old Cameroonian Joel Matip has looked very assured at centre-back having kept his spot after a good display in the 5-0 win over Burton in the EFL Cup, while Nathaniel Clyne is back doing what he does best - namely bombing forward and joining in the attacks at every opportunity. Roberto Firmino, Adam Lallana and Philippe Coutinho have all scored confidence-boosting goals but Sadio Mane's injection of pace into this Reds team could see them move onto the next level this season and he should prove to be a pivotal player at the Liberty Stadium, where Saturday's hosts have failed to win in four attempts in the current campaign. Playing Man City back-to-back was never going to be easy for Francesco Guidolin but things could get worse before they get any better for the under-fire manager and there's no temptation to get with Swansea at odds as big as 7/1 in the match market. Instead it looks well worth putting faith in a thriving Liverpool team getting another early lead and stretching their opponents into further mistakes as the game goes on.
Verdict: Swansea 0-3 Liverpool
Opta facts:
- Swansea's 3-1 victory in May 2016 ended a run of eight games in all competitions without a win against Liverpool (D2 L6).
- Liverpool have won only one of their five visits to Liberty Stadium in the Premier League (D2 L2) - 1-0 in March 2015.
- Daniel Sturridge has been directly involved in six goals in his six PL appearances against Swansea for Liverpool (four goals, two assists).
Hull City v Chelsea (1500 BST)
You sense that Antonio Conte's Chelsea, despite looking so strong in winning their first three games of the campaign, have now come to a fork in the road. A 2-2 struggle with Swansea, followed by defeat to Liverpool and a thrashing at Arsenal last weekend, has left the Blues in a state of limbo somewhere between 'decent start to the season' and 'disappointing'. So we must not downplay the magnitude of a trip to the KCOM Stadium, where nothing but a victory would alleviate the doubts as how to classify the Londoners' first two months' work. Hull are also licking their wounds somewhat after being run ragged by Liverpool at Anfield. For the second league game in succession Mike Phelan had to try and cope with 10 men for more than a half of football, Ahmed Elmohamady's dismissal following that of Jake Livermore against Arsenal. Trying to fight fires and dealing with suspensions is something the Tigers can ill-afford given their size of squad and general lack of depth and it's no real surprise two quality teams have made them pay. David Meyler is expected to deputise at right-back with Moses Odubajo already out through injury and he could be given the run-around by Eden Hazard. The Belgian winger was dragged off after 71 minutes at the Emirates but absolutely loves playing against Hull and has opened the scoring in the last three head-to-heads, Chelsea winning all three and scoring at least twice in the process. Hazard is a best-priced 11/2 to make it four in a row, with Diego Costa 4/1 favourite to score first as he goes in search of his sixth goal of the season. With Livermore set to return in the centre of a pretty makeshift defence, Costa will inevitably fancy his chances. Hull have shown themselves to be dangerous when allowed time on the ball, something they just didn't get in their last two outings, and Chelsea's typically slower tempo may help the likes of Robert Snodgrass forge a few chances. But the anticipated return of John Terry for the visitors is a massive boost as they've patently missed his leadership of late and although that's a real concern in the long term, I'd fancy Chelsea to get the job done before addressing a few issues during the international break. Taking the visitors' defensive frailties into account looks a sensible option when it comes to identifying the right market to exploit and although they may concede, Conte's side look well capable of following Arsenal and Liverpool's lead and covering the handicap.
Verdict: Hull City 1-3 Chelsea
Opta facts:
- Hull have never beaten Chelsea in the Premier League, losing six and drawing twice.
- Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 12 matches in all competitions against Hull City, winning 10 (D2).
- Diego Costa and Eden Hazard scored in both Premier League fixtures against Hull in 2014/15. Indeed, five of Chelsea's last seven PL goals against the Tigers have been scored or assisted by Costa and Hazard.
- Hazard has scored in each of his last three Premier League clashes with Hull; he's never scored in four consecutive PL matches against a single opponent (also three in a row vs Spurs).
Sunderland v West Brom (1500 BST)
While David Moyes' comments over a predicted relegation battle right at the start of the season were fairly understandable on the one hand, you can certainly feel for the Sunderland fans when it appears their managers' fears have begun to rub off on the players. Not only are they rock bottom of the league with just the one point from six games, but the manner of their three home defeats so far this season have had relegation written all over them. Moyes' frank assessment of the 3-2 defeat to Crystal Palace last weekend, having led 2-0 after an hour, included the following line which clearly tried to distance himself from the bare results: "The team is in it together... but we need to get a better team, it's as simple as that. We need to get a team which can give us results." The transfer window obviously can't come quickly enough for the man whisked in to replace Sam Allardyce just a couple of weeks before the start of the season. On top of seemingly having little faith in his playing staff, Moyes has this week also had to deal with the complex case of a club doctor resigning from his post following an incident in which the manager was left stunned at having to withdraw Patrick Van Aanholt from his team to face Tottenham at White Hart Lane at the 11th hour last month. Punters aren't deterred, with Sunderland proving popular in the betting ahead of their clash with West Brom, who themselves may feel a little pressure on the need to get a result, not only due to Sunderland's current predicament but the run of fixtures which sees them face Tottenham, Liverpool, Man City and Leicester immediately after the international break. The Baggies have also had a disrupted start to the year, the new ownership seeing Tony Pulis come under pressure, but the team showed all of his fighting spirit when salvaging a 1-1 draw with a late goal at Stoke in the boss' 1,000th game as a manager, a decent result all things considered and one which backed up their impressive home win over West Ham. Salomon Rondon got the goal and is cutting a confident figure, while centre-back Gareth McCauley is always worth a second look at double-figure prices in the anytime goalscorer market. West Brom aren't going to go to Sunderland and tear them to shreds and surely the hosts will see this as an excellent opportunity to record a first win, but it's hard to be convinced as we're just not seeing it on the pitch. Another 0-0 between these two (8/1 that there's no goalscorer) wouldn't come as a shock but the away win represents a spot of value as the outsider of three possible outcomes.
Verdict: Sunderland 0-1 West Brom
Opta facts:
- Sunderland have won once in their last 13 Premier League contests with West Brom (D4 L8) - winning 2-0 in May 2014.
- Tony Pulis has avoided defeat in his last six Premier League matches against Sunderland (W1 D5), keeping five clean sheets.
- However, Pulis' teams have failed to score in six of their last eight top-flight meetings with Sunderland (two scored in total).
- The last two instances of Sunderland at home to WBA have finished 0-0; only twice before has an exact PL fixture ended 0-0 in three consecutive occasions (Aston Villa at home to Coventry & Middlesbrough at home to Leeds).
Watford v Bournemouth (1500 BST)
Watford are only marginal favourites but this looks a case of short-termism from the layers based on the Hornets' below-par performance in losing at Burnley and they look reasonable value to hit straight back with a win against Bournemouth. Captain Troy Deeney admitted his side were "bullied" at Turf Moor on Monday night and it's true that Clarets boss Sean Dyche had clearly done his homework - hit Deeney and Odion Ighalo hard at every opportunity, don't allow Étienne Capoue any space in which to operate and get plenty of service into the Watford box. Such tactics worked a treat although it's not something you can imagine Eddie Howe's Bournemouth will try to replicate. The Cherries put in another good home performance to beat Everton 1-0 last weekend but they may have been flattered by the Toffees' relative lethargy and they've struggled on the road so far, registering just one away league goal. It's not a team bursting with attacking talent; Callum Wilson and Josh King have one Premier League goal apiece but are rarely given the opportunity to play alongside one another and chances could be at a premium at Vicarage Road if Walter Mazzarri gets the desired response from his side. The Italian insists they didn't underestimate Burnley, rather that they failed to do the basics to the necessary level, and it's a view I'm willing to go along with. If that can be rectified and Watford can get close to repeating the kind of performances that saw them impressively beat West Ham and Manchester United, then Bournemouth will do well to come away with a point.
Verdict: Watford 2-0 Bournemouth
Opta facts:
- Watford have won four and drawn two of their last six games in all competitions versus the Cherries at Vicarage Road.
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last five league matches against Watford, although four have ended level (W1).
- In league competition, Bournemouth have only won once in their last 14 trips to Watford (D6 L7).
- Troy Deeney scored a hat-trick on his first appearance vs Bournemouth for Watford in August 2013, but hasn't netted in any of the four meetings since.
West Ham v Middlesbrough (1500 BST)
There was some encouraging news for West Ham this week, with Aaron Cresswell, Andre Ayew and Diafra Sakho all reportedly making positive progress in their respective injury lay-offs. That will have no real impact on their match with Middlesbrough but does help bring into focus one of the main reasons why the Hammers have fallen short of expectations so far this season. There is evidently unrest in the camp, the fans are divided like never before and the move from Upton Park has seen Slaven Bilic's side completely fall apart when any kind of pressure has been applied. But primarily the manager is having to deal with a depleted first-team squad, which is bound to have an affect on results. On top of Sakho and Cresswell - two of last year's stars - plus record summer signing Ayew, Andy Carroll is a long-term absentee and his name being in the headlines for all the wrong reasons again this week is hardly going to have helped team morale. So can we expect to see any improvement in the near future? The simple answer is 'no'. It's not like Southampton suddenly turned into world-beaters last weekend, though they are progressing nicely under Claude Puel. Dusan Tadic, Nathan Redmond and Charlie Austin linked up beautifully at times for the Saints, making it look simple with swift, incisive passes opening up the West Ham defence. But it was made all too easy for them. Centre-backs Winston Reid and Angelo Agbonna had little or no cover in front of them, while there was limited pressure applied further up the field from the likes of Simeone Zaza and Manuel Lanzini, who looks bereft of ideas compared to the creativity he displayed last season. Dimitri Payet is brilliant but can't beat many sides on his own and defending from the front is also not his strongest suit. I'd expect a couple of changes from Bilic, who hasn't become a bad manager over the summer. This run of form and lack of desire will be hurting him badly but it's very hard to be confident that he'll finally start to see what he wants this weekend. It's been a bruising start for Aitor Karanka's Middlesbrough and I'm sure they expected nothing less, but there were positives to be taken from the way his side fought back to 'win' the second half battle against Spurs, albeit still losing the war. Adama Traore shone when called upon from the bench and could be in line for a start at the London Stadium, so too Jordan Rhodes who came close to finding an equalising goal last Saturday. Rhodes is 3/1 to score compared to Alvaro Negredo's 9/4 which perhaps fairly reflects the former Blackburn man's chances of a call-up, but if he does lead the line then those odds are worth snapping up. In summary, Boro seem to have enough about them to end their losing run here and it could be even better for the north east side unless West Ham can snap out of their current slumber.
Verdict: West Ham 1-1 Middlesbrough
Opta facts:
- West Ham United have won their last seven Premier League home games against Middlesbrough; only versus Blackburn (9) have they recorded a longer winning streak at home.
- Alvaro Negredo has scored five goals in four appearances (all comps) against the Hammers, although all five goals arrived in the EFL Cup (0 in 2 apps in the PL).
- West Ham have lost five of their opening six top-flight games in a season for the first time in their history.
- Boro have lost their last five Premier League away games in London and have won only two of their last 22 trips to the nation's capital (D3 L17).