Saturday's Premier League predictions

Check out our game-by-game predictions, analysis and best bets for Saturday's action in the Premier League, including Liverpool v Tottenham.

  • Toby Alderweireld can get on the scoresheet at Anfield
  • Sunderland look overpriced for back-to-back victories 

There are seven matches in the Premier League on Saturday February 11 with the standout game undoubtedly second-placed Tottenham's trip to Liverpool for the evening game.

Arsenal get the day under way against resurgent Hull, while Manchester United and and in-form Everton are among the sides in action at 3pm.

Here, our Andy Schooler and Matt Brocklebank run the rule over all the matches while there are also links to each individual match guide including team news, more Opta statistics and manager quotes.

Premier League: Saturday's best bets

2pts Sunderland to beat Southampton

2pts both teams to score in Arsenal v Hull

1pt Toby Alderweireld to score anytime v Liverpool

    Arsenal v Hull (1230 GMT - Sky Sports 1)

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    Marco Silva has been underestimated from the outset and, despite Hull avoiding defeat in five of the eight games (all competitions) since he took charge, that appears to be the case once more ahead of the Tigers' lunchtime trip to Arsenal. Admittedly, it's not been a particularly happy hunting ground for Hull, their only victory here coming back in 2008 on their first-ever visit to the Emirates, but they almost came away with all three points a couple of years ago before Danny Welbeck rescued a point for the hosts, so it's not like the current crop of players have a long-standing hoodoo hanging over them. Throw in the 2014 FA Cup final, when extra-time was needed to split them, plus a goalless draw in the same competition last season, and it seems perfectly reasonable to try to start to construct some sort of case for the visitors, who are a double-figure price to come away with a famous victory. Earlier this season it was pretty much plain-sailing for Arsene Wenger's men, who ruthlessly took advantage of Hull's Jake Livermore being sent off in the first period to ultimately run out ready 4-1 winners. In the midst of a 14-match unbeaten Premier League run at the time, Arsenal's very next league match saw them destroy Chelsea 3-0. How things have changed. The Blues got their revenge (3-1) last Saturday to leave the Gunners 12 points off the title pace and they now face the very real and present danger of a battle for their coveted, perennial top-four spot. One suspects this could be Wenger's last year at the helm anyway, but if he can't qualify for the Champions League then it is all but certain. I'm loath to paint such a glum picture about a club clearly still well capable of tearing struggling teams to shreds, but Arsenal are not at their best and Hull's form under Silva stands up to close scrutiny. They were also beaten by a two-goal margin against Chelsea, since when they have given Manchester United a scare in the EFL Cup semi-final, drawn with them at Old Trafford in the league, and beaten the division's highest goalscorers Liverpool 2-0 last weekend. If we can forgive Silva for effectively sacrificing the FA Cup (beaten 4-1 at Fulham), then it's not hard to suggest the odds are skewed. The temptation is the back the visitors to keep on defying expectation and come away with a result of some kind but, fearing a positive reaction from some of Wenger's humbled stars, a more sensible approach is to back both teams to score. That's been a winner in the last three top-flight encounters between the clubs and, on recent evidence, seems likely to reward punters no matter what the outcome. Hull are full of confidence and blatantly a much better attacking unit under their new boss, while only Middlesbrough have kept the Gunners out at this ground in the league this term.

    Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Hull (MB)

    Opta Facts:

    • Arsenal have won seven of their last eight Premier League meetings with Hull (D1) since losing their first game against the Tigers in the competition, back in September 2008 (1-2 at the Emirates).
    • Since that 2-1 victory, Hull are winless in 13 games against the Gunners in all competitions, losing 11 (D2) including the 2014 FA Cup Final.
    • Alexis Sanchez has had a hand in six goals in three league games against Hull (five goals, one assist).
    • Sanchez is one of three Arsenal players to average 2+ goal involvements per game in the Premier League against a particular opponent (minimum of three appearances against them) - Ian Wright against Ipswich (eight goals and three assists in five games) and Lukas Podolski against West Ham (four goals and four assists in four games).
    • This will be Marco Silva's fourth meeting with one of the top six in the Premier League (Chelsea, Man Utd and Liverpool previously) in his first five league games as Hull boss. Of those previous three games, he's lost only one (0-2 at Chelsea), drawing 0-0 at Old Trafford and beating Liverpool at home on MD24.

    Man United v Watford (1500 GMT)

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    Much like the lunchtime kick-off, the underdogs look a very tempting price to win at Old Trafford although, as with Hull, I'm not quite convinced enough to pull the trigger in the match market, despite Watford coming in for a bit of money since the betting became available. This support makes perfect sense on many levels, not least current form. The Hornets, and in particular influential captain Troy Deeney, appear to have had a weight lifted from their shoulders following the departure of Odion Ighalo to China at the end of the transfer window and it leads one to ponder just how disruptive he was becoming behind the scenes in his desire to seek pastures new. Walter Mazzarri's team suddenly looked an extremely tight unit again in their 2-1 victory at Arsenal and encouragingly, for their backers, showed that to be no flash in the pan with an equally gutsy effort in seeing off 10-man Burnley last weekend, after which the manager felt his players may just have been feeling the effects of their Emirates heroics. Refreshed and eager to push towards a realistic top-eight finish, it will be fascinating to see if they can turn up here and replicate the kind of early intensity displayed against the Gunners. Deeney is a fair price at 5s to add to his recent mini-haul in front of goal, while Etienne Capoue looks to have recaptured the sort of form that saw him score four times in the first five weeks of the season and he's 10/1 in the anytime market. The obvious drawback to having a good go at one or two of these seemingly inflated prices is that United enjoyed something of a confidence-boosting stroll at Leicester last Sunday and now have Liverpool and Arsenal locked and loaded in their sights in a bid to elbow their way back into the top four. Jose Mourinho is competing on many fronts of course, with two Europa League ties sandwiching an FA Cup clash immediately following this game, but he also knows that Watford (H), Bournemouth (H), Southampton (A), Middlesbrough (A), West Brom (H), Everton (H) and Sunderland (A) is the sort of run of league fixtures that this club must take full advantage of to achieve their goals domestically. I say 'confidence-boosting' regarding the latest win as United had previously struggled to break down Stoke and Hull in their previous top-flight fixtures and they came on the back of the 1-1 draw with Liverpool so the three points were most welcome and allowed Zlatan Ibrahimovic to regain his touch. He's odds-on for a 16th league goal and in truth all bar the centre-backs are too short to be getting involved with in that market. If there's a bet to be found here then it probably rests with the draw, available around the 11/2 mark and potentially a shade over-priced. No side has drawn more than United's nine in the Premier League and six of those have come at home so that's the way to be looking, although Mourinho's hunger for the top four, the head-to-head record (see below) and that kind run of fixtures are just about enough to dissuade me from getting stuck in.

    Prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Watford (MB)

    Opta facts:

    • Manchester United have never lost a home league game against the Hornets (W7 D2 L0), winning all three against them in the Premier League.
    • The Hornets' only win at Old Trafford against the Red Devils came in October 1978 in the League Cup, with both goals scored by Luther Blissett in a 2-1 victory.
    • Watford could become just the ninth team in Premier League history to record a double over Man Utd in a season, following Arsenal (three times), Blackburn, Chelsea (three times), Everton, Liverpool (four times), Man City (three times), Swansea and West Ham.
    • Troy Deeney has scored two Premier League goals against the Red Devils, both penalties in the last five minutes of matches. However, he also scored a 90th minute own-goal to gift Manchester United victory in November 2015.
    • Deeney has scored in each of his last three Premier League games (three goals). He last scored in four in a row in December 2015.

    Middlesbrough v Everton (1500 GMT)

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    A game of out of form versus in form if ever there was one. Boro come into this on a seven-match winless streak in the league, one which has left them perilously close to a relegation zone they have managed to avoid all season so far. Goals continue to be a problem - just three times has the net been found in those games - and against an Everton team in decent nick, that has to be a concern. Romelu Lukaku managed four on his own last week in the 6-3 win over Bournemouth, a result which made it five wins (and just one cup loss) from their last eight. The Belgian is now the league's leading scorer although whether he can continue his exploits against a defence which has proved tough to breach this season has to at least be open to question and I see no value in backing him at a shade of odds-against in the anytime scorer market. Everton probably should win this given how they've performed of late - they've won at Boro's fellow strugglers Palace and Leicester recently and also claimed a 3-1 victory in the reverse fixture when they were in similar good form back in the autumn. If you are considering backing them, then it may well be worth doing so to win by a single goal. Eight of Boro's 11 losses have been by that margin and in this market you can get 11/4 as opposed to 11/10. For those looking for something bigger, James McCarthy has potential as an alternative to Lukaku in the anytime betting. With both Gareth Barry and Morgan Schneiderlin in the starting XI against Bournemouth, McCarthy got licence to get forward more and duly had a bigger influence on the game. He was rewarded with a goal, albeit a fortuitous one, but the point is he was getting into positions which make Paddy Power's 11/1 quote simply too big. With plenty of focus on Lukaku, McCarthy's late runs into the box could be key to unlocking the home defence. Of course, Ronald Koeman could well shuffle his pack again for this away game so this may be one worth waiting for team news, although by then the price will probably have been taken.

    Prediction: Middlesbrough 1-2 Everton (AS)

    Opta facts:

    • Middlesbrough have managed just one win in their last 12 Premier League games against Everton (D4 L7), with goals from Yakubu and Mark Viduka securing a 2-1 victory in October 2006.
    • The Toffees have kept clean sheets in three of their last four Premier League visits to the Riverside Stadium (L1), winning all three of those games.
    • In all competitions, Everton are on their best winning run against Boro since December 1931 (four wins in a row) - they have never won five consecutively against them.
    • Romelu Lukaku has scored in both of his previous appearances against Boro for Everton, scoring once in both a 2-0 win in the League Cup last season and a 3-1 Premier League victory earlier this campaign.
    • Lukaku is now the Premier League's top scorer this season with 16 goals, with 25% of those goals coming in the last match against Bournemouth where he scored four.
    • The Belgian forward has scored 59 Premier League goals for Everton - just one shy of the club's record goalscorer in the competition (Duncan Ferguson, 60).

    Stoke v Crystal Palace (1500 GMT)

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    Stoke's home wins in the Premier League this season have come against Sunderland, Swansea, Burnley and Watford so it seems perfectly plausible that they add Crystal Palace to that list this weekend, but with Sunderland around 3/1 to beat Southampton elsewhere on the coupon then the urge to back the Potters at just a shade of odds-against is negligible. The reasons they're so short are many-fold but the key point is that, after another difficult start to the season, Mark Hughes has basically got his team performing close to what you'd expect of them and you have to go back to the home defeat to Bournemouth in November to find an even slightly surprising result in a game involving Stoke. They crumbled against some of the bigger clubs over Christmas but more recent 1-1 draws with Man United and Everton further highlight how hard they can be to beat at the bet365 Stadium, though it's the five home draws that have limited them to mid-table obscurity. Last weekend's defeat at West Brom can be excused to some extent given the furore surrounding January signing Saido Berahino returning to his former club but it was ultimately quite a lifeless display. A draw would be seen as a good result for Palace manager Sam Allardyce after they were spanked by Sunderland at Selhurst Park last weekend and the way the new boss got his squad to respond to a home defeat to Man City by winning at Bournemouth a fortnight ago serves as another reminder never to underestimate an Allardyce side in a relegation scrap. Furthermore, Palace have picked up the majority of their points on the road this season and have the physicality to match Stoke's approach, as well as the speed and guile to unlock a tight defence. At 7/4 with the draw-no-bet proviso it's the visitors who actually make most appeal, but neither side looks wholly reliable in a game that seems unlikely to be all that pleasing on the eye.

    Prediction: Stoke 1-1 Crystal Palace (MB)

    Opta facts:

    • Stoke have lost five of their last six Premier League matches against Palace (D1), losing each of the last four.
    • In all competitions, the Eagles are on a run of five consecutive victories against the Potters and haven't lost against them since August 2013.
    • Stoke have lost just one of their last 10 home Premier League games (W4 D5).
    • Sam Allardyce has won only one of his seven Premier League visits as a manager to the Bet365 Stadium (D2 L4) - a 1-0 win while West Ham manager in March 2013. This will be his eighth visit with his fourth different club (Blackburn, West Ham and Sunderland previously).
    • Allardyce has collected just four points in his first seven Premier League games as Palace boss, his worst start as manager of a Premier League club (previous worst after seven games was nine points with Sunderland last season).

    Sunderland v Southampton (1500 GMT)

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    Sunderland look one of the bets of the day here at a whopping 31/10. Confidence must be at a season-high after last week's 4-0 demolition of drop rivals Crystal Palace, a game which saw several new signings, including the influential Brian Oviedo, make their debut. Added competition for places often raises performance levels and perhaps that's what has happened with Lamine Kone upon his return from the Africa Cup of Nations - the Ivorian has been immense in the last couple of games with Sunderland keeping back-to-back clean sheets (a goalless draw with Tottenham being the other result - the Black Cats being only the third side to keep Spurs out). At the other end, Jermain Defoe shows no sign of slowing down on the goalscoring front and he should be relishing facing a visiting defence which has long since lost its watertight tag. Since their EFL Cup semi-final win at Liverpool, they've shipped 10 goals in losing to Arsenal, Swansea and West Ham (scoring only twice in reply). If you ignore cup games, their record since Christmas is played seven, won one, lost six, with 15 conceded. With Jose Fonte sold and Virgil van Dijk out injured, that probably comes as no surprise. It could be that Uruguay's Martin Caceres is signed in time for this clash but even if that happens, he's not played in almost a year due to injury so seems unlikely to be the immediate solution. Essentially I'm really surprised to see Sunderland at 3/1 and bigger. They are also worth considering at 9/5 in the draw-no-bet market and 4/5 double-chance. However, I've not been convinced by Southampton for some time and feel that a confident Sunderland can add to their poor run. Backing them to win the game is the way to go.

    Prediction: Sunderland 1-0 Southampton (AS)

    Opta facts:

    • Sunderland haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight Premier League games against the Saints (W1 D5 L2), conceding 16 goals - although half of those came in an 8-0 defeat in October 2014.
    • There hasn't been a goalless draw between these sides in any competition since March 1978 - each of the last 37 games has seen at least one goal scored.
    • David Moyes has lost only once in 11 previous Premier League meetings with Southampton (0-1 in September 2002 at Everton), though six matches have been draws (W4).
    • Jermain Defoe has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances against Southampton for Sunderland. Both goals came away from home - giving Sunderland the lead in the 80th and 85th minute respectively, only for Southampton to equalise five minutes later both times.
    • Defoe's two goals against Crystal Palace took him into second place in Sunderland's all-time leading Premier League goalscorers with 33 goals, one ahead of Niall Quinn on 32 - although he is 28 goals behind Kevin Phillips (61 goals).
    • Three of Sunderland's last four Premier League goals against the Saints have been penalties (two from Jordi Gomez and one from Defoe).

    West Ham v West Brom (1500 GMT)

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    For all the panicked hyperbole over the bedding-in period at the London Stadium, West Ham have now won as many home games in the Premier League as Manchester United. It's hard to put a finger on exactly how and when the Hammers crept up to a relatively-respectable ninth in the table but you get the sense that last month's 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace, their first fully convincing performance in front of their own fans after four rather nervy 1-0 wins, will act as a bit of confidence-booster going forward. Granted, a fairly hefty defeat to Manchester City followed soon after but there was definitely something about their come-from-behind win at Southampton last weekend that marked this team out as a far more assured one that set out so ponderously during a hapless period at the beginning of term, which featured a 4-2 defeat to Saturday's opponents in the reverse fixture. Winter signings Jose Fonte and Robert Snodgrass are highly likely to help them continue to improve and there's no issue with the suggestion they can complete back-to-back wins here, but it's also true that they're far too short (no bigger than 4/7 at the time of writing) to see off an in-form West Brom side. The Baggies have lost one in six, winning four, and boast one of the meaner defences in the division, while they've also started scoring a little more freely to boot. Tony Pulis' outfit have drawn just five blanks in their last 20 outings in all competitions and these came in games against the current top four (Chelsea, Spurs, Man City, Arsenal), plus Manchester United. So there shouldn't be much of a fear factor going into this one on the back of a 1-0 home win over Stoke and it's clear that a reasonable case can be made for both sides. It's understandable when this occurs to simply let the odds dictate and back the team that's most over-priced, or even plump for a draw, but instead I'll leave this one out of the staking plan and suggest a rather predictable narrow home win.

    Prediction: West Ham 2-1 West Brom (MB)

    Opta facts:

    • West Ham are unbeaten in their last seven home Premier League meetings against the Baggies, though five have been draws (W2).
    • West Brom's last top-flight win over the Hammers came in September 2002, with Jason Roberts scoring the only goal to give the Baggies their first ever Premier League away victory.
    • However, the Baggies' last away win at West Ham came in the second tier in November 2003; when they came from 3-0 down to win 4-3.
    • Mark Noble has scored three Premier League goals against West Brom - only against Southampton (4) has he scored more.
    • Andy Carroll needs one goal to become only the fifth West Ham player to score 30 Premier League goals for the club after Paolo Di Canio (47), Carlton Cole (41), Trevor Sinclair (37) and Mark Noble (33).
    • Carroll has hit four goals in five Premier League appearances in 2017; no other Hammers player has more than one.

    Liverpool v Tottenham (1730 GMT - BT Sport 1)

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    Even the most hardened Liverpool backer will surely glance at the form table and wince slightly before piling in at prices that can only be described as skinny. Granted, they're the Premier League's joint-highest scorers, they have home advantage, plus a brilliant recent head-to-head record against their Saturday evening opponents. But if you're playing at not much bigger than 6/5 then you don't expect to see L-L-L-D-L as your most recent evidence and you certainly don't want to be seeing Swansea, Wolves and Hull as three of the teams to have beaten the favourites in that horrible mini-run. You don't have to go back too far to find a much more encouraging display, the 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea clearly the best they've played for a while and even Antonio Conte seemed impressed by the quality and intensity shown by Jurgen Klopp's side in the second period. Liverpool raising their game for big matches against supposed rivals is not a new phenomenon and it's something we have to take into account ahead of this much-anticipated match with second-placed Spurs, but they've yet to win a game in 2017 and I simply can't recommend them at the odds on offer, despite the inevitable reaction that simply has to happen before long. Having said that, Tottenham haven't exactly been prolific on the road this season, albeit only losing two away and it's the draw that could lure me into the match betting if drifting any further. The Reds have won five of the last eight league meetings between the sides but the last three have ended all square - two of those being 1-1 - so the score draw is tempting at a shade bigger than 7/2. However, the goalscorer markets might represent the best spot of value for anyone wishing to have a dabble on the TV game and Liverpool's James Milner could be interesting. The makeshift full-back has six goals in the league this term, all from the penalty spot, and is 6/1 to add another but given he offers precious little in terms of goalscoring threat other than from 12 yards, just backing a penalty to be awarded at 11/4 is a more sensible approach given you also have Spurs and any missed spot-kicks on your side in that instance. But it's Tottenham's centre-backs who appeal more at the prices, with Toby Alderweireld marginally preferred to Eric Dier. Neither has a league goal to their name this term but they are frequently picked out by Christian Eriksen from corners and free-kicks, at which most Liverpool fans can still be forgiven for having their hearts in mouths. Belgium's Alderweireld, who picked up four Premier League goals last year and has been threatening in recent weeks, did find the net against Monaco in Europe earlier this season and also scored for his country in a World Cup qualifier in October, so he'll do nicely at a generous-looking 16/1 in the anytime market.

    Prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Tottenham (MB)

    Opta facts:

    • Liverpool are on an eight game unbeaten run against Spurs in the Premier League (W5 D3 L0); they last went nine without defeat against them in March 1998.
    • Spurs have lost 15 of their 24 visits to Anfield in the Premier League (W2 D7) - they have only lost more often at Old Trafford (20) and Stamford Bridge (16).
    • Mauricio Pochettino has never beaten the Reds as Spurs manager (D3 L3), including losing a League Cup fourth round tie earlier this season. However, when he was manager of Southampton he won two of three games (L1) against them.
    • Only against Newcastle (88) have Liverpool scored more Premier League goals than against Spurs (83).
    • There have been nine own goals in Premier League meetings between these sides - more than in any other Premier League fixture.
    • Liverpool have scored 12 penalties against Spurs in the Premier League - the most by a team against an opponent in the history of the competition.
    • The Reds have scored more penalties than any other Premier League side this season (6), with all six converted by James Milner.

    Posted at 1610 GMT on 09/02/2017.

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